Presidential Approval and The Midterms

They really matter.

From The Next Hurrah.

There is, however, a historical correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm Congressional election results (at least at the House level). This site compiles historical presidential approval ratings dating back to 1937, when Gallup first started doing the poll."

While not predicting a 40 seat drop for R's this year (the landscape is different with redistricting and the professional marketing of the GOP vs the amateur Dems), the graph clearly shows the historical precedent for low approval correlating with loss of House seats in a midterm.

[...]

People have made up their mind about Bush. What he now has is a thick ceiling and a thin floor in the polls. Dems will never trust him again, and indies have their doubts. Republicans will hug him like a life preserver, which won't stop them from abandoning him if it looks like they might drown.

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