Jeff Huber at Pen and Sword - Fighting Them Over There (Part III)

Two quotes I love from this piece:

You don't need a fleet of high tech fighter jets to counter air attacks. In fact, most of the "evil world" has gone to air defense postures that rely on lower cost, ground based anti-air artillery and burying the stuff they don't want bombed so deep that bombs can't get to it. And you don't need capital ships to whack an aircraft carrier if you can put it out of action with a coastal anti-ship missile battery that you can set up on the back of a dune buggy.

This, essentially, is the situation we'll face if we try to pop a can of spank on Iran, and when the smoke clears enough to let the sun through, there's a good chance that our sterns and tailpipes will shine a lot redder than theirs do.

and...

Sometimes "fighting them over there" accomplishes little more that giving "them" an opportunity to give you a bloody nose.

You can't lose your front teeth in a bar fight if you stay away from the bar.

Read it.